Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Their Impact on the Gold Relationship

Authors

  • Mustaph KHALFOUNI Sciences, Technology and Innovation (STI), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan, Morocco
  • Rafia FRIJ National School of Commerce and Management of Tangier, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Morocco
  • Mohammed Lamarti Sefian Sciences, Technology and Innovation (STI), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan, Morocco https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8270-2660
  • Noaman LAKCHOUCH Sciences, Technology and Innovation (STI), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan, Morocco https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9523-5569

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-2299

Keywords:

Bitcoin; Gold; Halving; Interdependencies; Volatility; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), DCC-GARCH modeling

Abstract

This paper examines the interdependencies between Bitcoin and gold within the context of Bitcoin halving cycles. Using a comprehensive econometric approach, including cointegration tests, VAR and VECM models, DCC-GARCH modeling, and wavelet coherence analysis, we investigate short- and long-term dynamics linking these two assets.Our findings indicate that, over the long term, Bitcoin exhibits characteristics similar to gold as a safe haven despite its high volatility and sensitivity to short-term shocks. Moreover, the incorporation of macroeconomic variables, such as stock market indices and oil prices, highlights the significant influence of broader economic conditions on this relationship. These results suggest that while Bitcoin may serve as a complementary asset to gold in diversified portfolios, prudent management is essential to mitigate the risks associated with its speculative nature.

Downloads

Published

2025-04-05

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025)

Section

Research Articles

License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

    1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
    2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
    3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).

How to Cite

Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Their Impact on the Gold Relationship. (2025). Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing, 14(1), 105-129. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-2299